Pakistan
Pakistan, officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan (Urdu: اسلامی جمہوریۂ پاکِستان) is a sovereign state in South Asia. It has a 1,046-kilometre (650 mi) coastline along the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman in the south and is bordered by Afghanistan and Iran in the west,India in the east and China in the far northeast.[7] Tajikistan also lies very close to Pakistan but is separated by the narrow Wakhan Corridor. Strategically, Pakistan is located in a position between the important regions of South Asia, Central Asia and the greater Middle East.[8]
The region forming modern Pakistan was the site of several ancient cultures including theneolithic Mehrgarh and the bronze era Indus Valley Civilisation. Subsequently it was the recipient of Hindu, Persian, Indo-Greek, Islamic, Turco-Mongol, and Sikh cultures through several invasions and/or settlements. As a result the area has remained a part of numerous empires and dynasties including the Indian empires, Persian empires, Arab caliphates, Mongol,Mughal, Sikh and British Empire. Pakistan gained independence from the British Empire in 1947 after a struggle for independence, led by Mohammad Ali Jinnah, that sought the partition of India and the creation of an independent state for the Muslim majority populations of the eastern and western regions of British India.[9] With the adoption of its constitution in 1956, Pakistan became an Islamic republic.[10] In 1971, an armed conflict in East Pakistan resulted in the creation of Bangladesh.[11]
Pakistan is a federal parliamentary republic consisting of four provinces and four federal territories. With over 170 million people, it is the sixth most populous country in the world[2] and has the second largest Muslim population after Indonesia.[12] It is an ethnically andlinguistically diverse country with a similar variation in its geography and wildlife. With a semi-industrialized economy, it is the 27th largest in the world in terms of purchasing power. Since gaining independence, Pakistan's history has been characterised by periods of military rule,political instability and conflicts with neighbouring India. The country faces challenging problems including terrorism, poverty, illiteracy and corruption.
Pakistan has the seventh largest standing armed force and is the only Muslim-majority nation to possess nuclear weapons. It is designated as a major non-NATO ally of the United States and a strategic ally of China.[13][14] It is a founding member of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (now the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation)[15] and a member of the United Nations,[16] Commonwealth of Nations,[17] Next Eleven economies and the G20 developing nations.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Is Pakistan’s economy immune to crises?
It’s a good question and worth thinking about. Not many countries get to reflect on how, in spite of it all, they’re still standing. Pakistan’s economy has weathered some very severe storms, yet it still stands and delivers. Might there be a story there?
Dr Zaidi’s hint is towards the informal sector, or how the country’s “wide social and economic networks allow families and individuals to live in worlds which are often not on the economists’ map.” He believes that remittances form a large input into this ‘informal sector’, making it resilient and keeping it going even during times of severe economic distress.
But there are two things he fails to mention. One is that besides remittances, another crucial input for the ‘informal sector’ is energy, whether electricity or natural gas, and for this vital input, the ‘informal sector’ is totally dependent on the vagaries of its elder sibling: the formal economy.
Shortages of power and natural gas have hit small and medium enterprises much harder than the formal economy, where the large manufacturing concerns have adapted by investing in captive power and leveraging private channels to arrange privileged access to dwindling gas resources. And through this vital input, the supposedly ‘resilient’ informal economy ends up sharing the fate of the formal sector, living and breathing with every pulse of the circular debt, the winter gas load management plans and the oil price fluctuations. Far from resilience, the informal sector is in fact brittle, unable to adapt to the new shortages that are becoming a permanent feature of Pakistan’s economy, and tied into the formal economy’s weaknesses and shortages.
The other thing he forgets to mention is that in the two crisis moments in our recent past, Pakistan pulled through on the back of external help and nothing else. For the crisis that began in May 1998, the external help arrived in the form of a Saudi oil facility and in the form of a $600 million loan from the IMF. And for the crisis that began in 2007, external help finally arrived in November 2008, though this time there was no oil facility, only a loan from the IMF.
In fact, the only time Pakistan has faced a sharply deteriorating economic situation with no external help arriving was in the years leading up to 1971, but that opens up a different can of worms altogether.
Yet, there is no doubt that Pakistan has weathered some very difficult times, and in spite of it all still stands. What explains this resilience? If I were to venture a guess, I’d say two things. We are self-sufficient in food, and our enormous gas reserves, which account for almost half of our domestic fuel requirement, have helped cushion the impact of rising energy prices worldwide.
The layperson may not feel that his energy bill is cushioned. Households have seen their energy bills rise very sharply in the last three to four years. What the layperson does not see is the growing trend towards domestic gas as the fuel of choice, burdening our already strained gas reserves with rising demand. Close down CNG pumps for a month, generate all your electricity from furnace oil and see what your energy bills look like after that and you’ll get an idea of what I’m talking about.
Fact of the matter is that we are still largely shielded from the spike in energy prices around the world, but we cannot remain shielded forever. A projection by the Petroleum Institute of Pakistan shows that by the year 2025, our supplies of natural gas will dwindle down to a quarter of what they are today. Domestic gas is running out, no major fields are about to come online, and the cheapest imported alternatives are priced at triple of what we’re used to paying for gas, and in many cases much more. We need a clearer understanding of where the price of energy is going over the next 10 years, and nobody needs this clarity more than the ‘informal sector’.
Will external help be as forthcoming now as it has been in the past? Remember how the government of Nawaz Sharif struggled with its external position throughout 1998 and 1999?
When the IMF finally did come through, it was in December of 2000, and with a miserly $600 million at that; just enough to carry us through till June 2001, when they would examine the budget to see if any further money was warranted. No growth came from the ‘strict implementation’ of the IMF program in 2000. It took 9/11 and the consequent windfall avalanche of liquidity to come pouring in to get growth started again in this country in 2002.
But is such an avalanche likely to happen again? With the recession abroad, and all stocks of international goodwill exhausted, it’s unlikely that any external windfall is about to come our way. Just enough money to keep us from going over sure, like in 2000, but not enough to underwrite a boom.
In some cases, the economy’s vulnerabilities have grown. For instance, in November 2008 we discovered that our banks can be drained of liquidity very quickly. In 1998, fears of a run on bank resources was restricted to foreign currency accounts, but in 2008 even rupee liquidity saw severe stress, enough to prompt an intervention by the State Bank. If fears of a bank run meant freezing foreign currency liquidity in 1998, what might similar fears mean today?
Pakistan’s economy has shown some resilience over the decades, undoubtedly, but it would be a mistake to allow that to become a source of complacency in the complex and dangerous world that we are entering now.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 17th, 2011.
TBMs to ensure early completion of Neelum-Jhelum project
During his visit to Neelum Jhelum Hydropower Project, he said the Neelum Jhelum was a priority project of WAPDA’s low-cost energy generation plan. Since completion of the project was vital for the country, he said, Wapda is taking all possible measures for the purpose, including deployment of two TBMs, on the project. “The TBMs, being imported from Germany by the contractor, are expected to reach Pakistan by January 2012,” Durrani added.
Lauding efforts of the project authorities, the WAPDA chairman said that completion of the tunnel to divert River Neelum was a landmark in implementation of the project. The diversion tunnel was completed in October in record time of two years.
Neelum Jhelum Hydropower Company CEO/MD, briefing the Chairman, said the overall progress on the project stands at 27 per cent. He said about 17-kilometer long tunnels had so far been completed. These include both access and main tunnels. He also briefed the chairman about excavation work on the powerhouse and the main tunnels and piling for the composite dam. It is pertinent to mention that Neelum Jhelum Hydropower Project is being constructed on River Neelum in Azad Jammu & Kashmir. The project is scheduled to be completed in 2016. On completion, the project will provide about 5.15 billion units of electricity annually to the national grid. Benefits of the project have been estimated at Rs 45 billion per annum. The project will pay back its cost in about seven years.
President ask for pushing wind power projects
He directed that land allocation process for 18 other wind power projects also be expedited.Spokesperson to the President, Farhatullah Babar said the President was informed that all projects companies involved with wind power projects, have suggested announcement of upfront tariff to save at least six months project time which is spent in tariff determination by the authority concerned.
The President directed NEPRA to examine the suggestion and expressed the hope that NEPRA would soon arrive at a consensus upfront tariff regime for all the projects till the capacity to produce 2000 MW is achieved.
However, the option of opting for normal tariff determination system would remain open for the companies, which do not opt for the upfront tariff, he said.
The President said that incentives would be given to the companies that would be able to start their power productions within one year.
He also directed for finalization of schemes for construction of road networks in the areas of the power projects.
During the briefing, the President expressed satisfaction that Zorlu Energy of Turkey, FFC Wind Energy and CWE of China, each with 50MW capacity have reached advanced stage and would be able to generate power by December 2012.
The President said that such project were a good start in the quest for finding alternative resources of energy which are efficient as well as would help to reduce the dependence on traditional modes of electricity generation and at the same time expand the power supply capacity to remote locations where grid expansion is not practical.
The President said that wind energy being clean and renewable source of energy was also the world’s fastest growing energy resource and Pakistan needs to tap all available resources including that of solar energy.
The President said that the demand for energy has increased in tremendous proportions in the last few decades and is expected to increase further in the coming years.
He said “meeting the energy requirements is also crucial for our development, therefore we need to utilize all available resources for meeting the energy challenge”.
Those whoe were present during the meeting included, among others, Provincial Ministers Ms. Shazia Mari, Syed Murad Ali Shah, Mir Nadir Khan Magsi, Agha Siraj Durrani, Sharjeel Memon, Chief Secretary Sindh, Shahzar Shamoon, Senior Member Board of Revenue (SMBR), and concerned Provincial secretaries.
Syed Naveed Qamar, Minister for Water and Power, Malik Asif Hayat, Secretary to the President, Ms. Fouzia Wahab and Arif Allauddin Chairman, Alternative Energy Board were also present during the meeting.
Pakistan, Russia to go for FTA, currency swap agreement
Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, who had a frank discussion in a cordial atmosphere, here on Monday also discussed the whole gamut of relations on the sidelines of the 10th Heads of Government meeting of the SCO. The two leaders discussed several important issues including fight against terrorism and extremism besides calling for the need to adopt a regional approach in dealing with common challenges. The two leaders discussed ways to strengthen relations by increasing cooperation in energy, trade, infrastructure development, agriculture, business cooperation and people to people contacts.
Prime Minister Putin said relations between Pakistan and Russia have reached a level, where both the countries were in a position to enhance trade, measuring up to their strong ties.
Prime Minister Gilani said Russia was an important country and a source of stability in the region and because of its geographical proximity and strength of economy, it has contributed significantly for the socio-economic uplift of the region.
The Russian premier also supported Prime Minister Gilani’s proposals for implementing trade and energy projects.
He announced financing of 500 million US dollars for the CASA-1000 for the power transmission from Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Putin also offered Russia’s assistance for the enhancement of the production capacity of the Pakistan Steel Mills by increasing its production from the current one million tonnes to three million tonnes.
He also offered coal gasification technology for the Thar coal and upgradation of the Guddu and Muzaffargarh power plants to increase power generation capacity to help meet country’s growing energy needs.
Putin said in practical and tangible terms, Russia wants materialization of projects including TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project and the Central Asia South Asia Electricity Trade and Transmission Project (CASA 1000).
Gilani appreciated Russia’s support for mega projects including CASA-1000 and said it was his fourth meeting with Prime Minister Putin.
He mentioned that he joined other leaders at the SCO forum despite the occasion of Eid because of the importance of the forum and also because of Pakistan’s commitment to the regional issues.
Prime Minister Gilani called for the opening of respective bank branches in both the countries to jack up the trade level. He said the top officials of their central banks can meet to work on an operational strategy in this regard.
The Russian Prime Minister said the inter-ministerial commission’s meeting will be held on December 12, which will take up all subjects of cooperation at the experts level.
“Pakistan is important for us in trade and economy and is an important country of South Asia and the Organization of the Islamic Conference and can play an important role in the promotion of peace and security in the region,” he told Prime Minister Gilani.
The leasing of Sukhoi commercial aircraft for the Pakistan International Airlines was also discussed during the meeting.
Russian premier Putin also offered assistance to Pakistan in disaster management, saying it could help save precious lives and property.
Gilani said he was very pleased to meet his counterpart at his home town of St. Petersburg, which was also an economic hub like Karachi, where he was born and said “we share affinity between the two cities.”
Putin supported Pakistan’s stance on war on terror and agreed to pursue the policy of counter-terrorism for ensuring regional peace.
The two prime ministers agreed that collective regional efforts were required to eliminate terrorism from the region to usher in peace and stability, and redirect all energies towards economic interaction among the members of SCO.
Russian Prime Minister said Pakistan had good relations with China like the ties of his country with China, and it would be appropriate if the three countries can work together for peace, prosperity and stability of the region.
Prime Minister Gilani invited the Russian Prime Minister to visit Pakistan, which he accepted. The dates would be worked out by the respective foreign ministries of the two countries.
The 10 historic facts about Pak-US ties
Here follow the 10 historic facts about the nearly 64-year old “love-hate relationship” between the United States and Pakistan (from more recent to past history):
1) It has been exactly two years since the amended version of the ‘controversial’ Kerry Lugar Bill was unanimously approved by the US senate and an announcement in this context was made by none other than the US President Barack Obama in September 2009, but Pakistan is yet to receive any substantial chunk out of it.
It is noteworthy that in less than a week’s time from now, the on-going American financial year will end and the new fiscal will begin on October 1, but the ‘pledged’ American dollars are no where in sight yet.
A Geo Television report of September 24, 2009, had stated: “US President Barrack Obama Thursday said the US senate has unanimously approved the amended Kerry-Lugar bill. He made the above announcement while addressing the Friends of Democratic Pakistan summit. The US president said under the Kerry-Lugar bill Pakistan will be provided financial aid of 1.5 billion dollars per year for five years. The condition of cooperation with India has been removed from the bill while a new condition of cooperation with the neighbours on war against terrorism has been included in the amended bill. The condition on Dr Abdul Qadir Khan has also been struck out.”
2) Pakistan has so far received over $18 billion in military and economic aid from Washington DC since 9/11, official Congressional documents reveal.
Meanwhile, a Press Trust of India report of February 23, 2010, which was carried by major Indian newspapers like “The Times of India” and “The Hindu” etc, had also quoted the figures from the US Congressional documents.
The Press Trust of India report had stated: “A Congressional compilation of US aid to Pakistan says Islamabad has received $6 billion in civilian aid after the September 11 terrorist attack in New York. The Obama administration in its latest annual budget has proposed $1.6 billion in military assistance and about $1.4 billion as civilian assistance to Pakistan. This takes the total US aid to Pakistan to more than $20.7 billion post 9/11, according to the data compiled from information received from the Departments of Defence, State and Agriculture and US Agency for International Development.
Of the military assistance, the maximum amount $7.345 billion has gone to Pakistan as Coalition Support Fund (CSF), which many do not consider as foreign assistance as this is reimbursement that Pakistan receives for its support of the US military operations in Afghanistan.”
The official Indian news agency had gone on to write in its February 2010 report: “This is followed by $2.164 billion as foreign military assistance. After coming to power, the Obama administration has so far provided $1.1 billion ($400 million in 2009 and $700 million in 2010) for Pakistan Counter-insurgency Fund/Counter-insurgency Capability Fund. For the year 2011, Obama has proposed to the US Congress $1.2 billion for Pakistan under this category.”
3) In October 1999, the American aid to Pakistan was cut off (for the sixth time since the signing of the 1954 defence pact, when the then Army Chief General Pervez Musharraf had staged a bloodless coup, ousting the then Premier Nawaz Sharif. The US government promptly invoked fresh sanctions under Section 508 of the Foreign Appropriations Act, which included restrictions on foreign military financing and economic assistance.
The assistance was thus restricted to refugee and counter-narcotics assistance only. Aid to Pakistan had dropped dramatically from 1991 to 2000 to a dismal $429 million in economic funding and $5.2 million in military assistance.
4) The Pak-US relations had also suffered a serious setback in 1998, after the then Premier Nawaz Sharif opted to test the country’s nukes. A presidential visit scheduled for the first quarter of 1998 was postponed and, under the Glenn Amendment, US sanctions again restricted the provision of credits, military sales and economic assistance to Pakistan.
5) When the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan in 1990, US military aid to Pakistan was again suspended under the Larry Pressler Amendment. However, in 1995, the Brown Amendment authorised the delivery of military equipment worth $368 million.
6)) In December 1979, the former Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and the United States gave $2.19 billion in military assistance to Pakistan between 1980 and 1990 as ‘reward’ for blocking and resisting the raging Soviets. This military aid was in addition to $3.1 billion economic assistance.
7) In April 1979, the United States again severed its military ties with Pakistan due to Washington’s concerns about Islamabad’s nuclear programme and construction of a uranium enrichment facility, though food assistance under the Symington Amendment had remained unaffected.
8) During the 1971 Pakistan-India war, the US again suspended its military aid to Pakistan, but resumed limited financial aid in 1972, after Islamabad had facilitated President Nixon’s tour to China the same year.
9) The first time the US had suspended its military aid to Pakistan was during the 1965 Pak-India war. Ten years down the lane, in 1975, the US arms sales to Pakistan resumed and Islamabad received $50 million in military grants, $19 million in defence support assistance and $5 million in cash or commercial purchases.
10) Both Pakistan and America had first inked a mutual defence accord on May 19, 1954 at Karachi, which had actually facilitated the influx of $2.5 billion economic aid and $700 million military assistance from Washington DC to Islamabad till 1964.
As far as America’s military adventures (both scripted and unscripted) are concerned, the world super power has intruded in the affairs of at least 50 countries of the world over 130 times during the last 121 years.
These numbers were incorporated by this scribe in one of his earlier reports after an in-depth research was conducted with assistance sought from renowned US scholar Dr Zoltan Grossman’s book “From wounded knee to Libya: A Century of US military interventions,” and from celebrated author William Blum’s books “A brief history of US interventions: 1945 to Present” and a best seller “Killing Hope: US Military and CIA Interventions Since World War II.”
A quick glance into the US military history unveils the fact that although the Americans have been in the battle-field since 1775 or the year in which they had gained independence from the British Empire, their spirited quest for supremacy has continued unabated since its first involvement in the affairs of Argentina in 1890.
Moreover, since the September 11, 2001 episode, the US Congress has approved $1.283 trillion for military operations, base security, reconstruction, foreign aid, embassy cost and healthcare of the veterans, taking part in the still ongoing War on Terror.
The War on Terror is thus the second costliest American offensive in the country’s 236-year old military history after the World War II, which had cost Washington DC an amount equivalent to $4.1 trillion when converted to current dollars. (Reference: CNN report of July 20, 2010)
Saturday, October 29, 2011
IFC supports landmark wind power project in Pakistan
Few international players are currently operating in the power sector in Pakistan and IFC’s support was instrumental in realizing financing for the project.
Zorlu Enerji is a key IFC client in the renewable energy sector, dating back to 2009, when IFC financed the project developer’s 135MW wind power project in Turkey.
The Zorlu Energy General Manager Arif said, “Pakistan’s first wind power plant project to be built with international finance, was made possible by the support we received from IFC”.
By demonstrating the viability of Pakistan’s local and renewable resources, this project is expected to have a considerable impact on the economy.
“IFC’s partnership with Zorlu Enerji, one of our key clients, enables us to extend additional support to the renewable energy sector in Pakistan. We hope this project will stimulate the interest of other investors in harnessing the country’s favorable wind resource,” said Gulrez Hoda, IFC Director for Infrastructure and Natural Resources in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and North Africa.
The project will help to alleviate Pakistan’s power deficit by developing an indigenous, renewable resource for power generation.
It will also contribute to reducing the country’s reliance on imported fuel for power generation.
“The IFC, a member of the World Bank Group, is the largest global development institution focused exclusively on the private sector. We help developing countries achieve sustainable growth by financing investment, providing advisory services to businesses and governments, and mobilizing capital in the international financial markets”.
In fiscal 2011, amid economic uncertainty across the globe, we helped our clients create jobs, strengthen environmental performance, and contribute to their local communities-all while driving our investments to an all-time high of nearly $19 billion.
In FY11, IFC invested over $500 million in renewable-energy projects, representing over 60 percent of IFC’s commitments in the power sector in terms of dollars invested.